Good morning Emerging Europe/Africa (FX MMKT HIGHLIGHTS TODAY PLN CZK HUF RUB TRY ZAR)
Good morning Emerging Europe/Africa - 28 Oct
RECAP GLOBAL MARKETS
USD/Majors: EUR was due for a bout of profit taking after rising to stratospheric levels yesterday and so it proved in the Asian session. Overnight buying was mostly executed by algo accounts, with short term stops triggered along the way. While GBP partook in the rally as well, its rise was not as pronounced as EUR, leading to prices trading firmly above 0.8800 in EURGBP. AUD was the biggest gainer in overnight trading, and it was no surprise to see it fall 70 pips with short term profit taking seen.
JPY/Crosses: Month-end exporters' offers dragged USD/JPY under the 75.90-mark by Asia mid-day while EUR/JPY was also a tad softer from overnight highs, currently at 107.50-ish levels amid profit taking. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY saw slippage towards the 122-figure, weighed by lower consumer confidence survey and similarly, AUD/JPY also on the decline after the overnight surge and at the 81-figure at last indication. Nikkei returned from lunch, up 1.2%.
Good morning Emerging Europe/Africa - 28 Oct
RECAP GLOBAL MARKETS
USD/Majors: EUR was due for a bout of profit taking after rising to stratospheric levels yesterday and so it proved in the Asian session. Overnight buying was mostly executed by algo accounts, with short term stops triggered along the way. While GBP partook in the rally as well, its rise was not as pronounced as EUR, leading to prices trading firmly above 0.8800 in EURGBP. AUD was the biggest gainer in overnight trading, and it was no surprise to see it fall 70 pips with short term profit taking seen.
JPY/Crosses: Month-end exporters' offers dragged USD/JPY under the 75.90-mark by Asia mid-day while EUR/JPY was also a tad softer from overnight highs, currently at 107.50-ish levels amid profit taking. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY saw slippage towards the 122-figure, weighed by lower consumer confidence survey and similarly, AUD/JPY also on the decline after the overnight surge and at the 81-figure at last indication. Nikkei returned from lunch, up 1.2%.
RECAP GLOBAL DATA/EVENTS
* US: Q3 GDP 2.5%, as exp. Core PCE 2.1% vs 2.5% exp.
* US: Initial claims to 402k from 404k, vs 401k exp.
* US: Sep pending home sales -4.6% vs +0.3% exp
* EU: China is very likely to contribute to the eurozone's bail-out fund but the scope of its involvement will depend on European leaders satisfying some key conditions - FT
* EU: French Pres Nicolas Sarkozy sliced France growth forecast for 2012 and said his govt will unveil its second austerity package since the summer as it seeks to meet its deficit targets. - DJ
* UK: GFK Consumer confidence survey came in at -32 vs exp -30
* Japan: Sept household spending in at -1.9% vs exp -3.5%. Sept Jobless rate at 4.1% vs exp 4.5%. CPI print 0% vs exp 0.1% while Tokyo CPI for Oct came in at -0.5%, as expected. Industrial Production for Sept out at -4% y/y and -4% m/m, vs exp -2.3% and -2.1%.
RECAP EM ASIA
USD/Asians: Asian bourses took the cue from Wall Street and got off to a roaring start with SEXSEX in the lead, last seen at 2.7% and SETI not far behind at 2.4%. Notably, gains in some other bourses which opened earlier have moderated as seen in HSI and Kospi. FX-wise, the underperformer was SGD with 0.3% loss against the dollar, followed by THB at -0.2%. On the other end of the spectrum, INR, MYR and KRW strengthened 1.4%, 1.1% and 1% respectively vs the dollar, backed by firm EUR and equity gains.
UPCOMING KEY GLOBAL DATA/EVENTS
* In the US:
Friday will see the release of Sep personal income and spending data, which we expect to show some resilience amid generally choppy trends. Personal income should rise 0.4% (market at 0.3%) as spending increases 0.6%, with core PCE rising 0.2% (consensus at 0.1%). The final revision to Oct Michigan sentiment will also be due, expected to edge up to 58.5, with the market expecting a smaller revision to 58.0. 1-year inflation expectations should remain unchanged at 3.2% but we expect the 5-year measure to modestly pare its slip to 2.8%.
* In Europe:
At last a bit of a breather from summit fever, though it won't be long before it's on to the next rounds of scrutiny next week - be it the first Draghi press conference (where he will be under pressure to elaborate on his stance and what he meant on unconventional policy) or the Nov G20 meeting. For now though it seems like their has been a suspension of disbelief regarding all the major doubts on implementation, firepower, and fundamental underlying problems unaddressed, and a willing to go along with the notion that a statement of intent has been made. It's quite a busy data calendar though this may struggle to make much impact against the broader brush mood. Spanish unemployment is seen unchanged at 20.9%, and HICP down to 2.9% from 3%, while Q3 Belgium GDP is seen holding up at 0.4% from 0.5%. French consumer spending is seen flat and still weak yr/yr (-0.6%y/y from -0.7%
* US: Q3 GDP 2.5%, as exp. Core PCE 2.1% vs 2.5% exp.
* US: Initial claims to 402k from 404k, vs 401k exp.
* US: Sep pending home sales -4.6% vs +0.3% exp
* EU: China is very likely to contribute to the eurozone's bail-out fund but the scope of its involvement will depend on European leaders satisfying some key conditions - FT
* EU: French Pres Nicolas Sarkozy sliced France growth forecast for 2012 and said his govt will unveil its second austerity package since the summer as it seeks to meet its deficit targets. - DJ
* UK: GFK Consumer confidence survey came in at -32 vs exp -30
* Japan: Sept household spending in at -1.9% vs exp -3.5%. Sept Jobless rate at 4.1% vs exp 4.5%. CPI print 0% vs exp 0.1% while Tokyo CPI for Oct came in at -0.5%, as expected. Industrial Production for Sept out at -4% y/y and -4% m/m, vs exp -2.3% and -2.1%.
RECAP EM ASIA
USD/Asians: Asian bourses took the cue from Wall Street and got off to a roaring start with SEXSEX in the lead, last seen at 2.7% and SETI not far behind at 2.4%. Notably, gains in some other bourses which opened earlier have moderated as seen in HSI and Kospi. FX-wise, the underperformer was SGD with 0.3% loss against the dollar, followed by THB at -0.2%. On the other end of the spectrum, INR, MYR and KRW strengthened 1.4%, 1.1% and 1% respectively vs the dollar, backed by firm EUR and equity gains.
UPCOMING KEY GLOBAL DATA/EVENTS
* In the US:
Friday will see the release of Sep personal income and spending data, which we expect to show some resilience amid generally choppy trends. Personal income should rise 0.4% (market at 0.3%) as spending increases 0.6%, with core PCE rising 0.2% (consensus at 0.1%). The final revision to Oct Michigan sentiment will also be due, expected to edge up to 58.5, with the market expecting a smaller revision to 58.0. 1-year inflation expectations should remain unchanged at 3.2% but we expect the 5-year measure to modestly pare its slip to 2.8%.
* In Europe:
At last a bit of a breather from summit fever, though it won't be long before it's on to the next rounds of scrutiny next week - be it the first Draghi press conference (where he will be under pressure to elaborate on his stance and what he meant on unconventional policy) or the Nov G20 meeting. For now though it seems like their has been a suspension of disbelief regarding all the major doubts on implementation, firepower, and fundamental underlying problems unaddressed, and a willing to go along with the notion that a statement of intent has been made. It's quite a busy data calendar though this may struggle to make much impact against the broader brush mood. Spanish unemployment is seen unchanged at 20.9%, and HICP down to 2.9% from 3%, while Q3 Belgium GDP is seen holding up at 0.4% from 0.5%. French consumer spending is seen flat and still weak yr/yr (-0.6%y/y from -0.7%
).
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق